Home Win & BTTS by the Hosts' Shots on Target Form, Last 5 Games
A pre-match stats sheet on home shots-on-target form and the home win & BTTS combination: the rate climbs steeply, and the 1X2 and goals prices climb almost with it.
Written by Isabela FontesBoth Teams To Score & Win specialistReviewed by Halldóra Sigurðardóttir, Editor-in-Chief
| Home win & BTTS, all matches | 19.4% |
|---|---|
| Home win & BTTS, 6.0+ SOT | 28.7% |
| Fair odds, 6.0+ SOT | 3.49 |
| Points vs price-matched, 6.0+ SOT | +1.8 |
- Market
- BTTS & Win
- The question
- When the home side has averaged more shots on target over its last five league games, how often does it win with both teams scoring, and is that already in the price?
- Sample
- 21 European league divisions (English tiers 1-4, Scotland 1-4, Spain, Italy, Germany, France 1-2, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Turkey, Greece), 2017/18-2025/26, 54,750 matches with full match statistics, rolling last-5 form available for both sides
This sheet looks at pre-match form, not in-match numbers. The question is simple. If the home side has averaged more shots on target over its last five league games, how often does it win while conceding at least once? Across 54,750 matches in 21 European divisions from 2017/18-2025/26, home win & BTTS landed 19.4% of the time, which is fair odds of 5.14. If you want the day's shortlists rather than the theory, my BTTS and win tips today page is where those live. This sheet is the reasoning underneath.
The headline answer is that shooting form matters a great deal and the market knows it. Hosts in the 6.0+ SOT band landed the combination 28.7% of the time, against a price-matched expectation of 26.9%. That is a gap of +1.8 points, and it is the largest in any band. Most of the signal is already in the 1X2 and goals prices. The edge, if there is one, is thin and sits only at the very top.
Stat line 1Combination rate climbs with home shots on target
Each row pairs two figures. One is what the margin-free 1X2 and over 2.5 prices implied for home win & BTTS. The other is what actually happened. From the 'Under 3.0 SOT' band up to '6.0+ SOT', the actual rate climbs from 15.7% to 28.7%, so the best-shooting hosts land it nearly twice as often.
Look at the dots, though, not just the climb. In the middle three bands they sit almost on top of each other. Only the extremes separate, with 15.7% against 15.2% at the bottom and 28.7% against 26.9% at the top.
View the data: home win & btts by home last-5 shots on target
| Price-matched expectation | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.0 SOT (8,228 matches) | 15.2% | 15.7% | ±0.8 |
| 3.0-3.9 SOT (16,374 matches) | 17.1% | 17.0% | ±0.6 |
| 4.0-4.9 SOT (15,797 matches) | 19.4% | 19.4% | ±0.6 |
| 5.0-5.9 SOT (8,957 matches) | 22.0% | 22.0% | ±0.9 |
| 6.0+ SOT (5,394 matches) | 26.9% | 28.7% | ±1.2 |
My main caveat sits here. A five-game shots average is noisy, and one wild match can lift a team into the top band. Only that top band's gap falls outside its 95% range, and with several bands tested, one result like that can turn up by chance. There are also no quoted BTTS & Win prices in the records to check it against.
Stat line 2Fair odds shorten from 6.39 to 3.49
This table is what I would actually check before a bet. Fair odds run from 6.39 for the weakest-shooting hosts down to 3.49 in the 6.0+ SOT band. In the '4.0-4.9 SOT' and '5.0-5.9 SOT' bands, actual and price-matched fair odds are identical at 5.16 and 4.54. Those two bands show a gap of 0.0.
At the top, the price-matched fair odds were 3.72 against actual fair odds of 3.49. On paper, that means a quoted price comfortably above the price-matched level is the least I would want. Anything near 3.49 gives back whatever the form was worth.
| Band | Matches | Landed | 95% range | Fair odds | Price-matched | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.0 SOT | 8,228 | 15.7% | ±0.8 | 6.39 | 6.59 | +0.5 |
| 3.0-3.9 SOT | 16,374 | 17.0% | ±0.6 | 5.90 | 5.84 | −0.1 |
| 4.0-4.9 SOT | 15,797 | 19.4% | ±0.6 | 5.16 | 5.16 | 0.0 |
| 5.0-5.9 SOT | 8,957 | 22.0% | ±0.9 | 4.54 | 4.54 | 0.0 |
| 6.0+ SOT | 5,394 | 28.7% | ±1.2 | 3.49 | 3.72 | +1.8 |
| All matches | 54,750 | 19.4% | ±0.3 | 5.14 | 5.20 | +0.2 |
Stat line 3Better shooting hosts win to nil more often
This is the conditional-probability trap I care about most. Strong shooting form makes the home win more likely, but it does not make conceding more likely. In the 'Under 3.0 SOT' band, the hosts won to nil in 19.8% of matches. In the '6.0+ SOT' band, that share rose to 31.7%, which is bigger than the 28.7% where both teams scored.
Draws fall from 28.1% to 21.5% across the same span. Home defeats drop to 18.1% at the top. So the dominant hosts kill more of the bad outcomes, but the clean-sheet win grows alongside the outcome you are backing.
View the data: how the bet settled in each band
| Home wins, both score | Home wins to nil | Draw | Home loses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.0 SOT | 15.7% | 19.8% | 28.1% | 36.4% |
| 3.0-3.9 SOT | 17.0% | 21.6% | 27.7% | 33.7% |
| 4.0-4.9 SOT | 19.4% | 24.4% | 26.4% | 29.8% |
| 5.0-5.9 SOT | 22.0% | 26.9% | 24.8% | 26.3% |
| 6.0+ SOT | 28.7% | 31.7% | 21.5% | 18.1% |
For a combination punter, that is the whole lesson. When I like a hot-shooting host, I still need a separate reason to believe the away side will score.
Stat line 4Top flights stretch the gradient far wider
Split by tier, the pattern holds in both groups, but its strength differs. In top flights, the combination goes from 14.6% in the bottom band to 30.3% in the top. In lower divisions, it runs from 16.5% to 25.2%, a much flatter slope.
My reading is that elite hosts with heavy shot volume tend to be genuine quality sides, while lower-league shot counts mix good teams with merely busy ones. I would trust the top-band profile more in a top flight. Even there, the price will usually have priced most of it.
View the data: home win & btts by band and league tier
| Top flights | Lower divisions | |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.0 SOT | 14.6% | 16.5% |
| 3.0-3.9 SOT | 16.5% | 17.3% |
| 4.0-4.9 SOT | 19.6% | 19.1% |
| 5.0-5.9 SOT | 23.1% | 21.0% |
| 6.0+ SOT | 30.3% | 25.2% |
Sheet verdict
- Start from 19.4%
Across all matches, home win & BTTS landed 19.4%, which is fair odds of 5.14. Anchor there before letting shots-on-target form move you.
- Demand more than 3.72
In the 6.0+ SOT band, the price-matched fair odds were 3.72 and the actual fair odds 3.49. A quoted price near the latter leaves nothing for the form signal.
- Price the away goal
Top-band hosts won to nil in 31.7% of matches, more than they won with both scoring. Back the combination only when you can argue the visitors will find the net.
Questions bettors ask
How often does a home team win with both teams scoring?
Across 54,750 league matches, home win & BTTS landed 19.4% of the time. That is fair odds of 5.14.
Do home teams with high shots on target form win and BTTS more often?
Yes. Hosts averaging 6.0+ shots on target over their last five games landed it 28.7% of the time, against 15.7% for those under 3.0. The price-matched expectation was already 26.9%, though, so most of that is priced in.
What are fair odds for home win and BTTS when the hosts shoot well?
In the 6.0+ SOT band, fair odds were 3.49 on actual results and 3.72 on the price-matched expectation. In the 5.0-5.9 SOT band, both figures were 4.54.
I'm Isabela Fontes, based in Rio de Janeiro, and I write the both-teams-to-score-and-win tips at fixedmatchesvip.com — where the right result and an open, two-way game both have to arrive for the slip to pay.
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