Away Win & BTTS by the Visitors' Shots on Target in Their Last 5
Pre-match shooting form roughly doubles how often away sides win in a game where both teams score, but the prices see it coming almost to the decimal.
Written by Isabela FontesBoth Teams To Score & Win specialistReviewed by Halldóra Sigurðardóttir, Editor-in-Chief
| Away win & BTTS, all matches | 14.2% |
|---|---|
| Away win & BTTS, 6.0+ SOT | 21.8% |
| Fair odds, 6.0+ SOT | 4.59 |
| Points vs price-matched, 6.0+ SOT | +0.3 |
- Market
- BTTS & Win
- The question
- Does an away side that has been hitting the target often over its last five league games win away with both teams scoring more often than its price implies?
- Sample
- 21 European league divisions (English tiers 1-4, Scotland 1-4, Spain, Italy, Germany, France 1-2, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Turkey, Greece), 2017/18-2025/26, 54,750 matches with full match statistics, rolling last-5 form available for both sides
Here is the question. An away side has been peppering the target over its last 5 league games. Does it go on to win while conceding more often than its price says it should? This is pre-match form, the visitors' rolling shots on target before kick-off, not the stat line of the match being settled. That matters, because a bettor actually has this information when the bet is placed.
The headline answer is that the market already knows. Across 54,750 matches, away win & BTTS landed 14.2% of the time. In the 6.0+ SOT band it rose to 21.8%, but the price-matched expectation was 21.5%, a gap of +0.3 points with a 95% range of ±1.0. Readers who use my both teams to score and win tips page will know I treat the "and" in this market as the dangerous part, and this study shows why shot form alone does not beat the price.
Stat line 1Shooting form lifts the rate, and prices track it
Each row compares two dots: what happened, and what the 1X2 and goals prices implied for the same mix of matches. Under 3.0 SOT, the double landed 10.6% against an expected 10.4%. At 6.0+ SOT it was 21.8% against 21.5%. The climb between those bands is steep and orderly.
The two dots barely separate anywhere, though. The largest gap in any band was 0.3 points, and in the 4.0-4.9 SOT band the actual rate ran slightly below the price. That is the main caveat in one line: visitors who shoot well are usually short in the betting, so most of this rise is the price doing its job rather than an edge.
View the data: away win & btts by away last-5 shots on target
| Price-matched expectation | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.0 SOT (7,494 matches) | 10.4% | 10.6% | ±0.7 |
| 3.0-3.9 SOT (15,683 matches) | 12.0% | 12.1% | ±0.5 |
| 4.0-4.9 SOT (16,268 matches) | 14.1% | 13.8% | ±0.5 |
| 5.0-5.9 SOT (9,361 matches) | 16.6% | 16.8% | ±0.8 |
| 6.0+ SOT (5,944 matches) | 21.5% | 21.8% | ±1 |
My takeaway is that shots on target form is a genuine signal of strength, but it is a public one. Every model reads the same match statistics I do.
Stat line 2Fair odds shorten from 9.46 to 4.59
Converting frequency into fair odds (1 divided by how often it landed) makes the comparison concrete. The weakest-shooting visitors priced out at 9.46, the strongest at 4.59, with all matches sitting at 7.02. In the top band the price-matched fair odds were 4.66, so the true figure was only a whisker shorter.
For a bettor, that table is a reservation price. If a quote for an in-form away side's BTTS & Win sits near 4.59, you are paying roughly fair before margin, not getting value.
| Band | Matches | Landed | 95% range | Fair odds | Price-matched | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.0 SOT | 7,494 | 10.6% | ±0.7 | 9.46 | 9.63 | +0.2 |
| 3.0-3.9 SOT | 15,683 | 12.1% | ±0.5 | 8.27 | 8.30 | +0.1 |
| 4.0-4.9 SOT | 16,268 | 13.8% | ±0.5 | 7.26 | 7.12 | −0.3 |
| 5.0-5.9 SOT | 9,361 | 16.8% | ±0.8 | 5.95 | 6.04 | +0.2 |
| 6.0+ SOT | 5,944 | 21.8% | ±1.0 | 4.59 | 4.66 | +0.3 |
| All matches | 54,750 | 14.2% | ±0.3 | 7.02 | 7.04 | 0.0 |
Stat line 3Strong visitors win to nil as often as not
This is where the combination bites. In the 6.0+ SOT band, 21.8% of matches were away wins with both scoring, yet 22.3% were away wins to nil, which lose this bet. Add 24.9% draws and 31.0% away defeats and you see how much of the distribution works against you.
At the other end, under 3.0 SOT, the away side won to nil in 12.5% of matches and drew 25.6%. Shooting form pushes up both kinds of away win together, so it does nothing to tell you whether the home side will find the net.
View the data: how the bet settled in each band
| Away wins, both score | Away wins to nil | Draw | Away loses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.0 SOT | 10.6% | 12.5% | 25.6% | 51.3% |
| 3.0-3.9 SOT | 12.1% | 14.3% | 26.6% | 47.0% |
| 4.0-4.9 SOT | 13.8% | 15.9% | 26.9% | 43.4% |
| 5.0-5.9 SOT | 16.8% | 18.0% | 26.2% | 39.0% |
| 6.0+ SOT | 21.8% | 22.3% | 24.9% | 31.0% |
That is the profile I hunt for, and this stat cannot isolate it: a side good enough to win but porous enough to concede. Shots on target speak to the first half of that sentence only.
Stat line 4The pattern holds across both periods
Splitting the seasons in two checks whether this is a quirk of one era. In 2017/18-2020/21 the rate went from 10.4% to 21.8% across the bands; in 2021/22-2025/26 from 10.7% to 21.7%. The middle bands drifted slightly upward in the later period, the 4.0-4.9 SOT row moving from 13.1% to 14.3%, but the shape is the same.
Stability is reassuring for the description and unhelpful for the bettor. A pattern this durable is exactly the kind prices have long since absorbed.
View the data: away win & btts by band and period
| 2017/18-2020/21 | 2021/22-2025/26 | |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.0 SOT | 10.4% | 10.7% |
| 3.0-3.9 SOT | 12.0% | 12.1% |
| 4.0-4.9 SOT | 13.1% | 14.3% |
| 5.0-5.9 SOT | 16.4% | 17.1% |
| 6.0+ SOT | 21.8% | 21.7% |
Stat line 5Even margin-free payouts barely clear zero
The win leg alone, backed at the best available price, returned −4.2% per stake over all matches and −3.4% in the 6.0+ SOT band. Best price is generous, too; a single account will not always get it.
The BTTS & Win bars are a model, not a real return: they assume payment at price-matched fair odds with no margin. Even then the top band shows +1.4% and under 3.0 SOT +1.8%, while the 4.0-4.9 SOT band dips below zero. Any real margin on a combination market would wipe out returns this thin.
View the data: flat-stake returns by band
| Win leg, best price | BTTS & Win at fair odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.0 SOT | −5.2% | +1.8% |
| 3.0-3.9 SOT | −3.9% | +0.4% |
| 4.0-4.9 SOT | −5.2% | −1.9% |
| 5.0-5.9 SOT | −2.6% | +1.4% |
| 6.0+ SOT | −3.4% | +1.4% |
| All matches | −4.2% | +0.2% |
I read this chart as a ceiling. If a margin-free world only offers crumbs, the priced world offers less.
Sheet verdict
- Treat form as priced
Strong away shooting form lifts BTTS & Win to 21.8%, but prices expected 21.5%. Do not back it on shot numbers alone.
- Use fair odds as floor
In the 6.0+ SOT band, fair odds were 4.59. Anything shorter is paying margin for public information.
- Assess the home attack separately
Strong visitors won to nil in 22.3% of top-band matches. Your edge, if any, lies in judging whether the hosts will score.
Questions bettors ask
How often does an away team win with both teams scoring?
Across 54,750 matches in 21 European league divisions, away win & BTTS landed 14.2% of the time, which is fair odds of 7.02.
Does high shots on target form make away BTTS & Win good value?
Not on its own. Visitors averaging 6.0+ shots on target in their last 5 landed it 21.8% of the time against a price-matched 21.5%, a gap well inside the ±1.0 range.
What are fair odds for away win and BTTS when the visitors shoot well?
In the 6.0+ SOT band the actual fair odds were 4.59 and the price-matched fair odds 4.66, so the market was almost exactly right.
I'm Isabela Fontes, based in Rio de Janeiro, and I write the both-teams-to-score-and-win tips at fixedmatchesvip.com — where the right result and an open, two-way game both have to arrive for the slip to pay.
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